All indicators point to the Western Cape having exited its third wave peak

Premier Winde statement on the Western Cape exiting third wave peak; “It’s time to relax restrictions further so that we can tackle the unemployment crisis”

According to our data, new cases, hospitalisations and deaths are now all showing consistent declines, pointing to the Western Cape having exited its third wave peak.

This trend is confirmed by the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, which now indicates a 99% probability that the Western Cape has already passed the peak of the third wave.

This third wave peak has been much longer than the second wave peak, resulting in a prolonged period of pressure on our health platform. While we are not completely out of this period of pressure, I do want to upfront thank and honour our healthcare workers who served with courage and determination during this time. It was not easy, but you have once again led from the front and saved the lives of many people in our province.

I would also like to thank our Health Department for their careful planning over this time. Although under pressure at the peak, we continued to cope – even when we were moved to a lower level of restrictions. This is because of advanced planning and very careful management of our health platform. This often goes unnoticed, but it is a world-class operation and I am grateful for your expertise.

Now that we have exited our third wave peak, we must have a frank and honest look at whether we are currently getting the balance right in saving both lives and livelihoods in this province. Getting this balance right is the policy of this government because jobs save lives too.

The results of the most recent Quarterly Labour Force Survey paint a terrifying picture that should leave all South Africans deeply concerned. While the Western Cape continues to have the lowest unemployment rate in the country, it remains unacceptably high for our standards and jobs are still being lost. This is a public emergency of the same magnitude as the pandemic and requires swift and agile action based on new data as it becomes available.

That is why given the clear evidence that we have exited our peak, and that we are now on a consistent decline, I will petition the President to move the Western Cape down a level to Alert Level 2 as soon as possible. This will enable the weekend sale of alcohol, a later curfew and an adjustment to the size of gatherings permitted.

This is essential for job creation in our province, especially in our hospitality and events sector as we approach our tourism season.

“Our health platform data shows consistent decline on all markers”

 The Western Cape closely monitors its data, which enables decisions to be made at key points to ensure we always have the capacity to respond:

• The Reproduction or “R” number has dipped below 1.0, which indicates that we are now declining from peak.
• There has been a decrease in cases over the last week, with 2571 new cases each day based on the 7-day moving average compared to 3543 at its highest point on 17 August 2021.
• The proportion of positive COVID-19 tests has also decreased from 42% at its highest point on 26 July 2021 to 26% this week.
• There has been a decrease in new admissions and deaths, with an average of 286 new admissions and around 80 deaths each day. This is down from 362 new admissions and around 122 deaths at its highest point on 1 August and 30 July 2021 respectively.
• The Metro had a week-on-week decrease of 19% with all sub-districts seeing a decrease in case numbers. The exception is Khayelitsha where case numbers are still flat, although the absolute numbers there are still relatively small.
• In the rural areas, most districts are also seeing a clear decline in case numbers, with the West Coast and Overberg still plateauing.

“We are starting to see reduced pressure on our healthcare platform”

As we exit the third wave peak, we are starting to see reduced pressure on our healthcare platform. There are currently 3334 COVID-19 patients in our public and private hospitals, compared to 3608 at its highest point on 6 August 2021.

Insofar as our acute service platform is concerned:

• The Metro hospitals have an average occupancy rate of 98%; George drainage area hospitals at 68%; Paarl drainage area hospitals at 75% and Worcester drainage area hospitals at 72%.
• COVID-19 and persons under investigation cases currently make up 25% of all available acute general hospital capacity in both Metro and Rural Regional Hospital drainage areas.
• COVID-19 inter-mediate care: the Brackengate Hospital of Hope currently has 247 patients and, Mitchells Plain Hospital of Hope has 125 clients and Sonstraal currently has 61 patients.  This means we did not need to bring online Ward 99 or the Freesia Ward during this wave.
• The Metro mass fatality centre has the capacity for 240 bodies; there are currently 43 decedents are admitted. The overall capacity has been successfully managed across the province.

“Western Cape continues to have sufficient bed capacity”

Throughout the pandemic, we have ensured that there is sufficient bed capacity in our hospitals to meet the demand, and we continue to do so.

As of 30 August 2021, the total general bed use rate in the Western Cape (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 combined) was at 89%, the total COVID-19 bed use rate is at 61%. This is compared to 91% and 76%, respectively, at its highest point on 10 August 2021.

• The Metro has 5065 beds, of which the general bed use rate is 98%, the COVID-19 bed use rate is 64%;
• The George drainage area has 918 beds, of which the general bed use rate is 68%, the COVID-19 bed use rate is 54%;
• The Paarl drainage area has 998 beds, of which the general bed use rate is 75%; the COVID-19 bed use rate is 72%; and
• The Worcester drainage area has 769 beds, of which the general bed use rate is 72%, the COVID-19 bed use rate is 39%.

 We are continuing to closely monitor the usage of beds across our province through the Bed Bureau Management System.

 “We will continue to monitor our oxygen capacity as we exit the third wave”

As we exit the third wave peak, we will continue to monitor the province’s oxygen use through our regular oxygen huddles with the Afrox Western Cape plant.

Insofar as our oxygen capacity is concerned:

• The combined public-private use is now 67 tonnes a day or 66.14% of the maximum production capacity at the Afrox Western Cape plant. This is compared to 78.7 tonnes or 104.9% at its highest point on 19 August 2021.
• The public sector total average bulk oxygen consumption is 42.3 tonnes a day.
• 22 tonnes of oxygen are being trucked into the province to supplement the province’s production capacity.

“Vaccines save lives and jobs”

 The further relaxation of restrictions to enable economic recovery, especially in the hospitality sector, is an urgent next step now that we have exited our third wave peak.

However, it will not be enough. International experience has made it clear that a rapid vaccination programme with significant reach will enable a full reopening of the economy, especially for international tourism. This is desperately needed in the Western Cape in particular.

That is why my message to you today is that vaccines will not only save lives, but they will also save jobs too. Please go out and get vaccinated as soon as possible so that we prevent hospitalisations and deaths, and so that we can get our economy growing again.

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